Which Dublin to London flight actually arrives on time? I tracked 60 days of data to find out

I fly Dublin to London regularly. Sick of delays, I stopped guessing which flights are most likely to leave on time and started tracking — 60 days of data gave me that answer.

The moment that pushed me to do this

Not for the first time, I sat on the runway staring out the window as the pilot politely notified frustrated passengers that we were waiting for a slot to take off. "Sorry for any inconvenience caused" was the message repeated by all staff, despite the fact the hold-up was no fault of theirs. We all sat there thinking the same thing: why do flights from Dublin to London never leave on time? Thankfully, I didn't get too long to dwell on it — my seat was promptly kicked by a fellow passenger behind me, who was less than impressed by the latest update. I promised myself that next time I made this "short trip", I'd do my research. When that fateful booking moment came a few weeks later, pinpointing flight punctuality metrics was surprisingly difficult. Why couldn't I see which flights were most likely to arrive on time?

The problem: no easy way to compare flight punctuality

Other sites let you track individual flights — but comparing on-time performance side-by-side simply wasn't possible. Tools like FlightAware show stats for individual flights, but they don't let you compare all Dublin to London flights at once. And that's what I actually needed. So I built it myself. Here's what the data shows.

The data behind this analysis

60 days of historical data
31 flights across four London airports: Heathrow (LHR), Gatwick (LGW), Stansted (STN) & London City (LCY)
Flights are classified as on-time if they arrive within 15 minutes of scheduled arrival
Only flights with at least 25 tracked journeys are included. Some flights aren't included yet — but will be updated as more data comes in.

The most punctual Dublin to London flights

Rank	Route	Approx. Departure	On-Time %	Flights Analysed
1	Dublin → Gatwick	2:30pm - 4:00pm	100%	60-62
2	Dublin → Heathrow	12:05pm	98.4%	61
3	Dublin → Gatwick	7.30am - 7:50am	98.3%	60
4	Dublin → Heathrow	7:45pm	98.3%	60
5	Dublin → Gatwick	6:20pm	98.1%	52

The standout winners are flights from Dublin to Gatwick in the early afternoon. With 60 or more flights analysed, the 2:30pm to 4pm window recorded a 100% on-time arrival rate. Flight times can vary slightly day to day, but your chances of arriving on time on one of these are as good as it gets. In second place is the Dublin to Heathrow midday flight, arriving on time 98.4% of the time. Third goes to the early morning Gatwick departure around 7:50am — arriving punctually 98.3% of the time and a solid option if you're heading over for an early meeting.

What surprised me in the data

Not everything landed (pun intended) the way I expected.

London City isn't as punctual as you'd think — Dublin to London City ranks no higher than 20th of 31 flights. That said, all four flights arrived on time more than 83% of the time — reliable, just not leading.
Stansted struggles at certain times — flights departing between 3pm and 3:30pm arrive punctually only 57% of the time. Evening departures between 6:30pm and 7pm, and around 10pm, fare only slightly better at 73% and 74%.
Early Heathrow flights can catch you out — the 6:40am and 7:30am services arrive on time just 75% to 78% of the time. Not ideal if you're cutting it fine for a meeting.

What this means for your next flight

Not all Dublin to London flights are equal. Timing matters — a lot. Choosing the right departure window can dramatically improve your chances of landing on time, without changing airline or price.

What's next This is the first in a series breaking down flight punctuality by London airport — Heathrow, Gatwick, Stansted and London City each get their own deep dive as more data comes in. In the meantime, check out the full on-time rankings at routeranking.com to give yourself the best chance of arriving on time.